Serious Comment:Will John McCain be the next President?by Ronald Pecorry Editor Satire and Comment
John McCain-the Next US President?
(Atlanta- Dec 24 2007) With 11 long months remaining before the election it's perhaps brave to try to predict who will be the next President. However there are many compelling reasons to conclude that John McCain will be the winner.
Consider first the republican candidates. Giuliani is a favorite. He is riding on his alleged success in cleaning up crime in New York and his Mr. 911 reputation. This however will not be enough to carry him to victory in the Republican primaries. He is left of the Republican Party on social issues and will not be appealing to the conservative Christians who have been dominant in recent years. So Guiliani wont make it.
Next up is Huckabee. Hucakbee is a charming speaker who uses humor well. He is very likeable and his personal triumph over obesity is well known and shows personal determination. His open Christianity makes him very appealing to the Christian conservative base but Republicans will recognize that his overt Christianity will cost them the national election if he is the Republican candidate. Consequently I don't believe he will be the Republican nominee.
Romney? In the end the Mormon "issue" and a certain artificial quality to his persona will be hard for him to overcome.
McCain is widely respected. He is rock solid on military issues. Although he won't be supported by the conservatives, he will be selected by the rest of the party as a balance between all the choices. Over the years he has made enough gestures to the conservative Christians to ensure that they will come out on Election Day to vote for him.
So McCain will represent the Republicans. But can he beat a Democrat?
It's been conventional wisdom for some time that a Democrat will sit in the White House as successor to Bush. Bush's Presidency has been a disaster for the United States. It has bitterly divided the country, wasted billions of dollars, turned the whole world against us and mired us in an unnecessary war. So it seems self evident that the Republicans will be punished and a Democrat will take the crown.
But which of the Democrats can achieve this? It seems likely that either Clinton or Obama will be the Democratic candidate. If the Clinton campaign implodes and Obama gets nailed for his inexperience, John Edwards may sneak in. Bill Richardson would make a worthy candidate but he seems to be off the radar presently.
So unless the Unites States has a sudden shift to the left in favor of Kucinich, one of the big three will be the candidate.
The Key Issue
National Security and the Iraq war will probably be the major issue in November 2008. Right now it's quiet over there in terms of news stories (as opposed to the actual death or actual people, but that does not seem to count). It may stay that way but the odds are against it. Clinton and Obama have both indicated that they will not order a pullout of troops from Iraq or end the war in a hurry. Edwards is in favor of a draw down but has been careful with his language until very recently, which may be too late for him.
So where does that leave the electorate? With the Republican and Democratic candidates both saying that they will not pull out of Iraq and that the war will continue for a few more years, then who are Americans going to put in the White House ?
Let's look at what happened to John Kerry. He and the Democrats did not come out against the war. They were too afraid to make it a policy to leave Iraq. If Kerry had taken a clear anti war position, then the election would have been a hard choice between Bush and more war and Kerry and no war.
Kerry and the democrats did not have the guts to do that. So it was Bush running against Bush-lite. The Republican won.
In time of war the public will choose a Republican. When a military hero like McCain, who is in favor of the war is up against a Clinton or an Obama, neither of whom are particularly against the war, then the public will stick with a safe pair of Republican hands. So it seems reasonable to predict that John McCain will be the next President of the United States and the Democrats will have to wait on the sidelines for 4 more years.